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Prediction for CME (2020-08-16T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-08-16T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15746/-1
CME Note: The source is a large prominence eruption near S30E25 in SDO imagery, occurring around 2020-08-16T17:01Z; the eruption is observed in SDO/AIA 94, 131, 171, 193, 211, 304Å. A B1.2 flare measured by GOES-Primary that starts at 2020-08-16T17:01Z and peaks at 2020-08-16T17:26Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-08-19T15:54Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.5 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-08-17 00:21
- Time at C2: 2020-08-16 18:24
- Radial speed: 541.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: S08E25

Inferences:
- No flare association was found

Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 568.30km/s 
- Predicted transit time: 69.52 hours

Lead Time: 30.15 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2020-08-18T09:45Z

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